Migration Pilot

South Sudan Refugee Movement Map

In the last few years, a huge amount of people were forced to leave their homes. One of the major issues hereby is to forecast refugee movements, which would allow decision makers and NGOs to allocate humanitarian resources accordingly. To predict possible destinations of refugees coming from conflict regions, a simulation framework has been built. This framework relies on agent-based simulations and makes use of  real world data from UNHCR, ACLED and Bing Maps. Applying this simulation framework to three major African conflict regions, we obtain results which consistently predict more than 75% of the refugee destinations correctly after 12 days. In HiDALGO the main goal is to build a simulation framework on a large scale to accurately predict massive refugee movements coming from various conflict regions of the world.